Probability 2 is the branch of maths that involves numerical descriptions of how likely an event is to occur, or how likely it is that a preposition is true. The probability of the event is a number between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates the uncertainty of the event and 1 indicates certainty.
That’s to say that, when it is close to zero(0), it shows that the event is not likely to happen but if it is close to one(1), it shows that the event is certain to happen.
When you talk about uncertainty, it has to do with our lack of knowledge in regards to possible outcome of the event. This means that you don’t know what the possible outcome will be at the end.
OBEJECTIVES OF PROBABILITY 2
- To obtain and understand the role probability information plays in a decision making process
- Understanding it as a numeric measure of the likelihood of occurrence
- To be able to understand the three method and when to use them
- To be able to use the addition law to compute using conditional and multiplication law
WAYS TO ASSIGN PROBABILITY 2
There are three main ways to assign probability
- By classical method: Assigning it based on the assumption of equally likely outcomes.
- Through relative frequency method: Assigning it based on experiment or history.
- By subjective method: Assigning it based on judgement.
ITS IMPORTATNT IN THE BUSINESS WORLD
- Its key role is to improve decision making in the face of uncertainties. It helps in decision making objective and data-driven rather than based on instinct.
- The model helps in businesses in optimizing their policies and making safe decisions.
- Though complex, its method can increase the profitability and success of a business
- It concepts are abstract ideas used to identify the degree of risk a business decision involves.
In conclusion, probability does not tell us exactly what will happen rather it is just a guide. For a example, when a single die is thrown, there are six possible outcome(1,2,3,4,5,6) and the probability of any of them is = 1/6.