At this critical moment, Emotions seemed to be the common sense for a lot of the decision makers. Even Watts, the military guy who is to pull the trigger, I believe needed a miracle.
Powell, request final permission to strike. She asks her risk assessment officer to find parameters that lowers the risk of civilian deaths to 45%. After he does his reevaluation, he concludes that Aliya has a 45-65 % chance of dying. She orders him to confirm only the lower figure and then reports that number to her superiors.
They authorize the strike and then Watts fires a missile. The missile reduces the building to rubbles; Aliya is severely injured but not dead. However, one of the bombers also survived. So, they ordered Watts to fire a second Missile. Its hits just as Aliya’s parents arrive the scene. They sustained some injuries in the second explosion too. They rushed Aliya to the hospital. There she dies.
There is a lot to analyze and learn from this story. Looking at it from the perspective of Analysis of Business Problem, the decision Objective metamorphosed from a Capture Mission to a Kill Mission due to a sudden discovery of how deadly the target had become. The Decision Alternatives in the same vein changed from to Kill or not to kill the al-Shabab target due to their nationality and their location in a friendly country to should we fire the missile or not? due to the level of collateral damage that is permissible.?
This is as a Result of a looming Suicide bomb attack as the Decision Problem.
The Criterions to make a decision Where;
- What would be the level of collateral damage
- Does the Kenyan Government approve shooting a Missile
- Does the American govt Approve the Kill Mission seeing the 2 of the terrorist or American Citizens
- Does the British Government also approve as a British Citizen is also involved?
- What is Political and ethically correct?
From all in indications, the Kenyan Government approved, American government approved, and the British Secretary of States confirmed Britain’s approval. This part settles any international riffs that might occur after the mission is completed.
But worthy of note is that, Powell deliberately lowers the level of collateral damage to her superiors to enable her execute the mission. Military personnel are one way Traffic robot. Once they have a target, they aim for it.
In my own Opinion, I think that Aliya’s sweetness got into almost everyone. The collateral damage would have been more if the suicide bombers had been allowed to explode somewhere else which is usually a mall.
Steve Watts connected to with Aliya when he was here playing the Hula baloo.
Come to think of it, if it where Aliya’s Dad that came to sell Bread, there would have been no debate of collateral damage.
A more accurate information gathering would have alerted the entire team of how and when Ayisha got in the building. There would have been no need to Kill. The Original plan of Capture would have taken place.
In Summary, when there are many relevant stake holders in a team to make a decision, everyone must agree within what rules of engagement before execution. Avoid cognitive biases and be objective in decision making.
#mmba4
