It is over one month that Nigerians in millions troop out to cast their votes in the general elections termed by most political and social commentators as Nigeria Decides 2023. Precisely on 25th February 2023, elections into the Presidential and National Assembly seats were held in 176,606 polling units across the country as conducted by Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Typical of every election cycle in most part of the world including the advanced democracies as witnessed in United State of America (USA) where post-election dispute went as far as insurrection when “mostly white mob stormed the U.S. Capitol after attending a Trump-headlined “Stop the Steal” rally on Jan. 6, 2021”[1] to obstruct Congress’ certification of the election that led to President Joe Biden mandate.
Therefore, it is not surprising nor illegal for parties and affected politicians in the last general election in Nigeria still asking questions about the conduct of the election, results declared and even the candidates declared as elected for various positions. Such complaints are now with appropriate election tribunals all the country with most citizens and observers focusing on the petitions by candidates of main opposition parties in the Presidential election as submitted to the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal (PEPT). Indeed, the next few months will be an interesting political period in Nigeria as people are keenly interested in how various issues raised by petitioners will be resolved by learned members of the PEPT.
Meanwhile, I would like to examine a few nuggets that came out of the last Presidential election even though we are waiting for legal fireworks to start at PEPT. Every nation is warped around some hypothesis whether tested or not. Some people will call them popular opinions or street news but, often, these hypotheses do happen as predicted by popular opinions.
Hypothesis is “a supposition or proposed explanation made on the basis of limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation”[2]. Therefore, writing from the definition perspective, few hypotheses about Presidential election in Nigeria would be reviewed to show that indeed the 2023 Presidential election was full of drama even though as stated earlier, the drama is about getting hot – get your popcorn and water – it’s about to go down!
Hypothesis I: Win majority of five (5) states with highest number of registered voters; win the presidential election.
Since return of democratic practice to Nigeria in 1999, Kano, Kaduna, Katsina, Lagos and Rivers have maintained the 5-top positions in terms of registered number of voters and even in previous presidential elections, these five states have witnessed highest numbers of voters on election day and contributed significantly to winning margins for past elected Presidents.
2023 general election was not an exception. Based on INEC data, the 5 states maintained their leads with respect to registered number of voters with Permanent Voters’ Card (PVC), one of the technological tools introduced by INEC and together with Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) to reduce cases of invalid, over and manipulated votes in 2023 general election[3].
According to INEC, out of 87,209,007 PVCs collected nationwide, Lagos has the highest figure of 6,214,970, followed by Kano with 5,594,193; Kaduna 4,164,473; Katsina 3,459,945; and Rivers 3,285,785[4]. Summarily, the five states stated in Hypothesis I account for total of 22,719,366 PVCs (26%) of total number in Nigeria.
If stressed to last four general elections (1999, 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019), the above table will not change significantly as most of the states will be within the top five as presented here. Same pattern happened in terms of actual election results for the past years mentioned as demonstrated with 2019 general election result below[5]:
Let’s check the outcome of 2023 presidential election to determine the fate of our beloved hypothesis. Recall the hypothesis is premised on two factors thus:
- A candidate that wins majority number of states out of top five states with highest registered voters i.e. a candidate with 3 states won out of 5 states
- The candidate that satisfies (1) above will win the presidential election.
After keenly contested presidential election on 25th February 2023 and final announcement of results by INEC in Abuja, the outcome for our top five states is presented thus[6]:
The result is shocking to pundits (even renowned analysts), awesome to neutral observers and totally unexpected for long-time proponents of the Hypothesis I.
Not only that the Hypothesis was overturned due to final total results by INEC and declaration of candidate of APC as President-elect[7] despite winning only one out of five top five states with highest number of registered voters, but the Hypothesis was also impacted by increase in number of strong candidates in 2023 presidential election as shown in the above table.
Summary, we have seen the overturn of one of the most popular hypotheses about Nigeria Presidential election and it is indeed noteworthy and decisive overturn.
[1] What the History of the Word “Insurrection” Says About Jan 6 | Time
[2] Oxford Dictionary 7th Edition
[3] PVC & Nigerian Factor: What Should Determine 2019 Elections – Federal Ministry of Information and Culture (fmic.gov.ng)
[4] INEC replies Tinubu’s Campaign, says 87.2m PVCs collected – Vanguard News (vanguardngr.com)
[5] Final Results of Nigeria’s 2019 Presidential Election by States – APC (19), PDP (18) – Tekedia
[6] Nigeria Presidential Election Final Results for 2023 (updated) – Tekedia
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