In my previous article I introduced the different types of psychological traps and their impact on decision making. In this article I will give a vivid illustrative story of how psychological traps can negatively impair decision making.
In the last blog, I defined psychological traps as “invalid or manipulated patterns that lead us down the proverbial garden path and eventually distract us from making the proper decisions”. They are often caused by cognitive biases, heuristics, or irrational beliefs that distort our perception of reality. I listed some common psychological traps such as hindsight bias, availability heuristic, actor-observer effect, illusory correlation, and Barnum effect3. These traps can undermine our decision and lead us to make bad decisions or act in ways that are not in our best interest.
The following is a possible story that illustrates some of these traps:
Olakunle was a successful manager at a payment processing company in Lagos. He had a reputation for being smart, creative, and decisive. He was always looking for new opportunities to grow the business and meet and exceed the next year’s budget. One day, he heard about a new technology that promised to revolutionise the industry. He was intrigued by the idea and decided to do some research on it. He found some articles online that praised the technology and its potential benefits. He also watched some videos of testimonials from satisfied customers who had used the technology. He was impressed by what he saw and heard. He thought that this technology could give his company a competitive edge and increase its market share.
He decided to propose the project to his boss to adopt the technology and integrate it into the company’s rproducts. He prepared a presentation that highlighted the advantages of the technology and how it could help them achieve their goals. He also showed some data that supported his claims. He was confident that his boss would approve his proposal and give him the green light to start the project.
However, when he presented his proposal to his boss, he was met with scepticism and resistance. His boss pointed out some flaws in his arguments and asked him some tough questions. He challenged his assumptions and asked him to provide more evidence for his claims. He also showed him some articles and reports that contradicted his findings and raised some doubts about the technology’s reliability, security, and scalability. He told him that he was not convinced that the technology was worth investing in and that he needed more time to evaluate it.
Olakunle was shocked and frustrated by his boss’s reaction. He felt that he was being unfair and unreasonable. He thought that he was missing a great opportunity and that he was holding back the company’s progress. He wondered how he could be so blind to the obvious benefits of the technology. He felt that he was biassed against his idea and that he did not appreciate his efforts.
Olakunle had fallen into several psychological traps that affected his decision making and perception. He had succumbed to the availability heuristic, which is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood or importance of something based on how easily it comes to mind or how vividly it is presented. He had relied on information that was readily available online, without checking its validity or credibility. He had also been influenced by the testimonials of satisfied customers, without considering other factors that could have affected their outcomes or opinions.
He had also suffered from confirmation bias, which is the tendency to seek out, interpret, and remember information that confirms our existing beliefs or hypotheses. He had ignored or dismissed any information that challenged or contradicted his view of the technology. He had only focused on data that supported his claims, without considering alternative explanations or sources of error.
He had also exhibited overconfidence bias, which is the tendency to overestimate our own abilities, knowledge, or judgement. He had assumed that he knew everything there was to know about the technology and its implications for the industry. He had not consulted with experts or peers who could have offered different perspectives or insights. He had also underestimated the risks and uncertainties involved in adopting a new technology.
These psychological traps had led Olakunle to make a poor decision and propose a project that was not well-founded or well-supported. They had prevented him from listening to constructive feedback and learning from his mistakes. They had damaged their relationship with his boss and hurt his reputation as a manager.
The moral of this story is: Beware of psychological traps when making decisions or judgments. They can cloud your vision and lead you astray.
