Since July 2022 when most political parties in Nigeria concluded their internal primaries to elect, nominate or select candidates for various political offices available in 2023 general elections, the political space has been busy and active.
Quick recap to readers not familiar with democracy journey in my motherland. Nigeria returned to democratic way of governance on May 29, 1999, when former President (Chief Olusegun Obasanjo) was sworn-in as the 1st elected president of 4th Republic taking over from General Abdulsalam Abubakar (who was the military Head of State from August 1998 – May 29, 1999). Current dispensation is termed 4th Republic because since independence of Nigeria from Great Britain on October 1st, 1960, military officers have truncated Nigeria democratic practice on several occasions – from 1966 to 1979; 1983 to 1993; 1993 to 1998 and 1998 – 1999.
Since the election of 1999 that ushered in Chief Olusegun Obasanjo[1] as the elected president after an election organized by last military regime headed by General Abdulsalam Abubakar, Nigeria has witnessed five (5) general elections for populace to elect the President, Governors, Senators, and other elective officers at both states and federal levels.
There are quite interesting data and insights into Nigeria general elections over the last 24 years. From 1999 registered voters of 57.94 million to 96.3 million in 2023[2] (66% increase) and declining number of actual voters from 29.8 million that voted in 1999 Presidential election to 24 million in this year election[3] (24% decrease). There are number of factors that have been attributed to inverse proportion relationship between number of registered voters and actual voters on election day especially for Presidential election.
From reduction in number of ‘ghost’ voters based on technologies introduced by Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) with biometric permanent voter card (2007) which replaced manual voters’ registration and reduced multiple registrations and voting. However, the impact of this technology was little felt from the outcome of general elections in 2007 as the tool was either not used at all or sabotaged at many polling units across the country. Similar experiences occurred in 2011 general elections.
However, there was another technology introduced – a card-reading machine that authenticate the PVCs and accredit voters – prior to voting. The bimodal voter accreditation system (BVAS) does not only prevent multiple registrations but also ensured that number of votes cannot be manipulated as the BVAS accredited number of voters serves as reference for acceptance or otherwise of number of votes in any polling unit[4].
Many analysts and observers have attributed the declining number of actual voters from 1999 to 2023 general election especially for Presidential election to BVAS magic as it is popular called. Clearly, the winning margin in Presidential election has dropped significantly from 18 million votes in 2007 election to 2 million in latest election[5]!
Technology has proven its usefulness and with more collaborations from personnel involved in electoral process – INEC, Political parties, politicians, and general populace – the integrity of elections in Nigeria will only get better in the future.
[1] Olusegun Obasanjo was military Head of State between 1977 – 1979 and handed over to elected civilian President in 1979. He further contested and won as elected President in 1999 and served for two terms of 8-years till 2007
[2] Nigeria: number of registered voters 1999-2023 | Statista
[3] #NigeriaDecides2023: How millions of votes have disappeared over the years (thecable.ng)
[4] ibid
[5] ibid
Decision making and Uncertainty